If you had never been to Planet Earth and arrived on January 24, 2023, checked into a hotel, and turned on the television to find out what was happening on this world, you would have been shocked. As the six-o’clock news came on, after some headlines about shootings, floods, wars, and advertisements for anti-depressants, a brief story would have caused your heartbeat to increase and made your eyes open wide.
An unperturbed reporter would have casually announced that The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists had unveiled an updated time setting on its Doomsday Clock. He weakly smiles as he says that a very serious group of nuclear physicists had proclaimed there was an unprecedented ninety seconds to midnight before the self-annihilation of humans. While you attempted to process this horrifying news, the correspondent follows this stunning development by saying, “stay tuned, after this message, an advance analysis of the upcoming super bowl.”
Before you knew it, someone was on the screen selling a large shimmering, black pick-up truck. It was driving quickly across a mountaintop — was that the sun setting in the distance? — or a nuclear blast?
You would then quickly grab your interstellar internet browser and search for ninety seconds to midnight. And with a sigh of relief, after reading an array of opinions and analyses, you’d realize the clock was only symbolic of the threat, and that you had more than five hours to get off the planet.
In your ongoing perusal of the relevant stories on that day, you’d find those that dismissed the movement of the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight as an outdated, over-dramatic depiction of the threat of nuclear war. However, most reports detailed sobering statistics about the number of countries with atomic weapons and the regions where current conflicts could quickly lead to their use. Also of great interest were the reports from organizations working to end nuclear proliferation. They expressed some relief, as they imagined the Doomsday Clock might have been set closer to midnight than ninety seconds.
From almost every point of view, there was no denying that the planet had found itself closer to a nuclear holocaust than at any time since the first atom bombs were dropped at the end of the last World War. Even the smallest battlefield nuclear weapons could have the impact as the bombs that destroyed entire Japanese cities. And their use was likely to instigate the firing of much more destructive weapons.
There were few who argued that a limited nuclear war was possible. Because of their immense power and destabilizing effect, once one was used, even by mistake, entire arsenals would be fired, bringing about mutual assured destruction. It was this concept that some used to claim that nuclear war would never happen. But this defied all historical precedents.
Almost every story posted on the day the Doomsday Clock moved forward discussed how escalating hostilities or even accidental firings could quickly lead to a worst-case scenario. All speculation was presented knowing that the world’s count of nuclear warheads was at about 13,000; easily enough to incinerate most life on the planet repeatedly.
The most fascinating analysis of the threat of existing nuclear arsenals used a metaphor to show an indisputable statistical probability. Someone loads a revolver with a single bullet, leaving five empty chambers, spins the barrel, then pulls the trigger. If the procedure is done repeatedly the gun will eventually fire — even with hundreds of empty chambers. It’s just a question of how many spins of the barrel and pulls of the trigger. The only way to change the 100% mathematical assurance of that outcome, would be to put the gun down and remove the bullet.
It was apparent that this was no way to settle an argument, but no country was even close to giving up the biggest weapons ever developed.
Even as the clock was set closer to midnight, the inevitability of nuclear war, based on math or political analysis, was not enough to cause nations to stop and consider the horrific devastation their use would engender. None of the countries with arsenals signed on to the latest treaty banning their production or use. And numerous nations without them were enthusiastic about developing nuclear capabilities.
Perhaps the most dramatic information revealed that billions of dollars continue to be squandered on nuclear arsenals. It seemed that no one recognized that if the same level of funding was applied to peaceful resolutions of conflicts, there would be no threat of self-immolation.
Apparently, the benumbed state of humanity on Earth had allowed the proliferation of the most dangerous weaponry. Was the increasing threat of nuclear war the ultimate barometer of human insanity? What other activities of humans on Earth produced similar illogical self-destructive consequences?
After considering this dire situation, you might look at the clock and decide it indeed was a good idea to check out of the hotel early — and depart for a safer realm.
To have security against atomic bombs and against the other biological weapons, we have to prevent war, for if we cannot prevent war every nation will use every means that is at their disposal; and in spite of all promises they make, they will do it. At the same time, so long as war is not prevented, all the governments of the nations have to prepare for war, and if you have to prepare for war, then you are in a state where you cannot abolish war. ~ Albert Einstein